on Thursday, October 30, 2014
Technical Analysis Of UCO BANK :

Buy Uco Bank for A Target Of 115.

on Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Technical analysis of PIPAVAVDOC (Pipavav Def & Offshore Eng LTD).

Buy pipavav for a Target of 57.

on Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Technical Analysis Of Unitech :

Buy Unitech For A Target Of 28.

on Sunday, October 26, 2014
Technical Analysis Of Bhel :

Buy Bhel For A Target Of 270.

on Friday, October 24, 2014
The worst thing ,an individual investor can do is to follow the market too closely.
Paul Bolster
Surely a sign of a good trader is that they don’t jump every time the market says ‘Boo’, but take a longer term perspective, ignoring short-term noise.
What is emotional investment?
Most of us invest based on our gut feeling or intuition also called instinctive impulses.Psychological factors such as greed ,fear ,hope and pride or Ego dominate our investing decisions.We sometimes go by tips or advice of some body or jump with news on TV or news papers.Our assumption of certainty of outcome is based on knowledge gained from various sources which we tend to believe or just give a try.This is irrational investing process as certainty of outcome is based on our belief of information where outcome is always binary and not predictable.
How emotional investing happens?
We have been hearing this gloom and doom stories or bubble themes since we are child. Good traders prefer to Turn off the TV and radio and study higher time frame charts. News is nothing but brainwashing to separate you from your hard earned cash by putting you in emotional freight train.
We all track news and information from various sources for investment purposes.Following very closely market news means tapping into short term developments which is deeply impacting price and consumer and investment sentiments.These short term moves emotionally involves us and influence our decision making.This is invariably true for most of us except professional experts or technical experts.When I say closely watching ,it means watching in 5 or 10 or 15 minutes time frame.You not only miss big picture ,but something happens in your head.It becomes subjective ,psychological called emotional trip.There you are in pressure of excitement or tension .
If you play chess ,imagine playing against an expert.You are not calm and relaxed.Your rational brain stops working completely.Time is pain then and you have no patience.Without patience ,you are in hurry like in greed or fear of missing out and you make mistakes. Similar mindset prevails when you are in trade.You don’t know when to buy or when to sell or when to book profit and loss. But Patience is slowing down in the face of pressure .It gives strength and maturity .It gives tremendous confidence to deal with any problems and provides solutions.Patience gives courage and confidence which opens the gates of solutions.This is true both in chess or trading or for that matter in any sports.
Emotional investing happens due to lack of patience resulting from addiction or obsession with market on 24X7 basis.You are just reacting to something which may or may not have certainty impact on price or expected outcomes.Your emotions or beliefs have nothing to do with market outcome whether present or future where mass beliefs are constantly changing.No predictability there, only probability or higher odds of certainty.Your emotional impulses or reactions affords none of these except the comfort of risk aversion.You eventually lose because emotions have nothing to do with certainty of outcome.We want to hit home run and don’t wish to be shaken out like suckers.Sound funny if someone tries to trade millisecond breakouts .Emotions lead you to be out of control and do silly thing in your attempt to control the uncontrollable.Give yourself and your mind some room to see big picture ,to observe from vantage point like a general instead of fighting like a foot soldier in direct combat.
What is Rational Investing Method?
Rationality is about probability ,odds and edge or superior chance of winning. In contrast ,Emotional investing is reacting to current market move by looking at smaller time frames which is most of times are not durable however terrible it may appear.It is called irrationality.On the other hand Rationality involves analyzing longer term or medium term trend and ignoring short term noise called volatility.Seeing big picture in randomness or chaos or deciphering high degree of certainty in sea of uncertainty .Trading is like crossing super highway where the danger getting crushed forever looms large.
However Rationality or objective method of trading does not afford 100% certainty per se.But trading safety is enhanced and Risk is greatly mitigated.Rational method demands high level of certainty of expected outcome and tolerable downside which is also kept in domain of possibility.This process protects downside and eliminates surprise elements from equation.
High level certainty of expected outcomes requires identification of long term or medium term trends or ranging behavior, historical volatility which determines both return and risk inbuilt in stock, or by building up higher odds with optimized and back tested Moving Average filters /MA cross over filter and ADX based filters like in trend following systems for examples. In addition ,odds are made favorable with Price action analysis by Japanese candlesticks ,trend lines and patterns or Fib tools and support/resistance study or price by volume study.Basically trading from long term chart is about objective trading.
Further ,we can reinforce our odds and edge to have greater certainty of expected outcome with higher safety and protection,using momentum indicator filters like RSI,STO,MACD, ATR, ADX and so on to know oversold/overbought conditions ,support/resistance ,filter noise or to know VAR and statistical significance of expected move.Your method should have formidable edge like that of casino and positive expectancy.Besides Using fundamental based filters like quarterly results or macro results like inflation.IIP or RBI policy announcements may serve same purpose. This is rational and objective filtering method for certainty and optimal outcomes.
Breakout traders ,momentum trading ,swing trading or trend following are some examples of rational method of trading.Rationality is about maths(quantitative methods like accumulation distribution or sentiment metric) ,charts ,probability. fundamental based study .positive expectancy or Edge which completely disconnects emotions from trading equation.
We tend to invest as herd and make our investing decision based on psychological factors such as fear,greed,hope and pride.We react and jump at every piece of news or every short term move of market which may not have decisive role to bring about certainty of the directon.Noise are misleading and to be ignored.In stead we ignore long term message of market about future.We tend to miss big picture over and over again.We are fooled by tips ,piece of inside information , media hype ,interesting news or noise and believe them.This happens we look at market too close in short timeframes which mistakenly gives us perception of certainty and we get trapped instead.
Ignore Noise and see big picture.Dont fall in Love and Keep distance from Market.
“The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get-nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction.”
Jesse Livermore
on Sunday, October 19, 2014
Technical Analysis Of RELIANCE INDUSTRIES:

Buy Reliance Industries For A Target Of 964.

on Saturday, October 18, 2014
1. Buying a weak stock is like betting on a slow horse. It is retarded.
 2. Stocks are only cheap if they are going higher after you buy them.
 3. Never trust a person more than the market. People lie, the market does not.
 4. Controlling losers is a must; let your winners run out of control.
 5. Simplicity in trading demonstrates wisdom. Complexity is the sign of inexperience.
 6. Have loyalty to your family, your dog, your team. Have no loyalty to your stocks.
 7. Emotional traders want to give the disciplined their money.
 8. Trends have counter trends to shake the weak hands out of the market.
 9. The market is usually efficient and cannot be beat. Exploit inefficiencies.
 10. To beat the market, you must have an edge.
 11. being wrong is a necessary part of trading profitably. Admit when you are wrong.
 12. If you do what everyone is doing you will be average, so goes the definition.
 13. Information is only valuable if no one knows about it.
 14. Lower your risk till you sleep like a baby.
 15. There is always a reason why stocks go up or down, we usually only learn the reason when it is too late.
 16. Trades that make a lot of intellectual sense are likely to be losers.
 17. You do not have to be right more than you are wrong to make money in the market.
 18. Don't worry about the trades that you miss, there will always be another.
 19. Fear is more powerful than greed and so down trends are sharper than up trends.
 20. Analyze the people, not the stock.
 21. Trading is a dictators game; you cannot trade by committee.
 22. The best traders are the ones who do not care about the money.
 23. Do not think you are smarter than the market, you are not.
 24. For most traders, profits are short term loans from the market.
 25. The stock market cannot be predicted, we can only play the probabilities.
 26. The farther price is from a linear trend, the more likely it is to correct.
 27. Learn from your losses, you paid for them.
 28. The market is cruel, it gives the test first and the lesson afterward.
 29. Trading is simple but it is not easy.
 30. The easiest time to make money is when there is a trend.
on Thursday, October 16, 2014
Technical Analysis OF LICHSGFIN:

Short LICHSGFIN For A Target Of 305.

on Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Technical Analysis Of HDIL :

Short HDIL For A Target Of 67.

on Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Technical Analysis OF MCX ZINC:

Sell Mcx Zinc For A Target Of 142.

on Monday, October 13, 2014
Technical Analysis Of Suntv:

Buy Suntv For A Target Of 366.

Technical Analysis Of Crude Oil :

Buy MCX CRUDE OIL For A Target Of 5233

on Sunday, October 12, 2014
Technical Analysis of  Asian Paints:

Short Asian Paints For A Target OF 627.

Technical Analysis of DLF :

Buy DLF For A Target Of  194.

Technical Analysis of Federal Bank :

Short Federal Bank For A Target Of  116.

on Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Technical Analysis Of ApolloTyre:

Sell Apollo Tyre For A Target OF 196 With a Stoploss of 218

Do not trade without Stoploss.
on Monday, October 6, 2014
Positional Call:


Stoploss At Your Own Risk.
on Sunday, October 5, 2014
Large numbers of people believe that an economic crash is coming next year based stock crash images-1 on a 7-year cycle of economic crashes that goes all the way back to the Great Depression. Such a premise is very controversial – some of you will love it, and some of you will think that it is utter rubbish – so I just present the bare bone facts below for you decide for yourself if it is something to seriously consider protecting yourself from in 2015. 
As can be seen below economic crashes of one kind or another occur approximately every 7 years going all the way back to the Great Depression.
  • 2008 :Lehman Brothers collapsed, the stock market crashed and we were plunged into the worst recession that we have experienced as a nation since the Great Depression.
  • 2001: The dotcom bubble burst, there was a year of recession for the U.S. economy, big trouble for stocks and that little event known as “9/11″ happened that year.
  •   1994: Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the             year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and                 bankrupting Orange County.  
    • 1987:The stock market plummeted 25% on “Black Monday” on September 27th of that year – the greatest one day stock market crash in U.S. history up until that time (surpassed by the massive stock market crash of September 29, 2008).
    • 1980:In 1980, the S&L crisis was blooming and everyone was talking about the “stagflation” that we were experiencing under Jimmy Carter. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates dramatically to combat inflation, and this helped precipitate the very deep recession that we experienced early in Ronald Reagan’s first term.
    • 1973 was the year of the Arab oil embargo, super long lines at the gas pumps, and a recession which ended up stretching all the way until 1975.
    • 1931 Those that have studied these things say that the pattern keeps going back all the way to the Great Depression pointing out correctly point that the stock market crash which began the Great Depression was in 1929, but actually the worst year for the stock market during the Great Depression was in 1931 – and 1931 fits perfectly into the cycle.


    As you can see from the above we have this pattern of economic crashes occurring approximately every 7 years so what should we make of all of this?
    I am sure that some of you will dismiss this as pure coincidence and speculation, others will find it utterly fascinating, but one thing is for sure – people are going to be talking about this seven year cycle all over the Internet.
    on Saturday, October 4, 2014
    A big part of trading is a probability game. The market can move any directions and many times against all logic and fundamentals for a period of time. An edge in trading is the ability to have winning probabilities on your side.
    Most people cannot distinguish between luck and skill when it comes to forecasting the market. At the best, I am right 50% on the timing of the trade but I am making money on >80% of the trades.
    I acknowledge I do not know how to predict the market timing with certainty. The process of trading is replete with errors and thus one has to cater for it.
    Apparent randomness in the market is so complex that it cannot be managed with my finite mind.

    So here are some ways that help me to handle the random behavior of the market:

    1. The first edge I have is to have the underlying fundamentals of the company. Although the stock may move short term against me but longer term it will be in my favour if the analysis of the fundamental is right. Thus, the probability is on my side assuming that my fundamental analysis is correct at least 70% of the time.
    2. I use a set of technical indicators to determine the short-term trend and sentiments of the market. It is a relative simple system that I had used for probably more than 10 years.
    Technical system does not need to be too complicated. Many technical systems will be correct >60% correct of the time if you apply it consistently. Normally, I use leading indicators ( price actions, patterns, and candlesticks ) and it is confirmed by the lagging indicators which are stochastic and MACD. There are some subjective judgments made when comes to trend lines, support and resistance. If the system is too complicated, you will not be able to apply it consistently.
    The problem is that once you have the indicators, many people tends to second guess the indicators again. Emotions of greed and fear are at play. Once you deviated, the technical system with all its winning probabilities is no longer valid.
    If you have a sound system, it does not matter whether any particular trade makes a profit or a loss. What matters is that the probabilities over time are in your favor. You must remember that no system is perfect, and prepare for losses along the way. You should measure yourself on whether you followed your rules and executed your system, for both winning and losing trades.
    3. Use options to hedge. tame the volatility, buy time and reduce the emotions to allow you to follow the technical system. I found this to be very helpful and effective. Many people use options to leverage to enhance the performance. I use options mostly to hedge my trade to tame volatility and buy time to allow the fundamentals to work.
    4. Keep your position size equal in your trade. For stock with higher volatility, the position size can be adjusted lower and vice versa. Statistically, it will allow winning probability, as fundamentals and technical analysis will be weighted to your favor. However, if the position size is not balance, a losing trade with a high position size will upset the portfolio performance although you may be >70% right on the fundamentals and technical analysis.
    5. Strictly apply risk control rules. It is part of the whole trading plan. In a losing trade, many traders are like a deer in a highway facing a crash. They freeze when they see the crash charging towards them. Instead of stopping loss or readjust positions according to the system, they hope that this time it will be different. Many pray to God to give them a last chance. But “HOPE” is dirty four-letter word in trading. You need to follow your rules for getting out. Even if you are wrong and got whipsawed by the market, at least you will be preserving your capital.
    6. Finally keep a journal. It is tedious work but it will be a great help. It will help you to know whether you are following the trading plan. One day, I will write in details on how I record my trades. It is a customized system using Excel. The journal should be customized to your style of trading. Keep it simple. Allow critical information like reasons for entering the trade, profit /loss %, number of days held, reasons for adjustments and getting out.
    on Friday, October 3, 2014
    Investing in gold is no joke, and a lot of information associated with it can confuse people. Since the gold market is an extremely volatile market, caution and a lot of research are needed when investors decide to commit to gold investing.
    Although using the services of an experienced gold broker makes the task of gold investing easier, it’s still necessary for investors to get a good grasp of investing, especially when making decisions for their own resources. Remember, only you have control over your assets so consider these tips to avoid whenever you decide to buy or sell gold.

    Peer Pressure

    This is a common beginner’s mistake. Just because everyone is buying or selling physical gold or stocks doesn’t mean you should do the same thing. Remember why you bought gold investments in the first place. Did you buy it for the exact purpose of covering your assets in times of high inflation? Then you should never sell it unless absolutely necessary. Did you decide to buy so you can sell when the prices are good? Then you must study the price movements yourself and decide whether it’s the best time to keep or sell gold. Bullion Vault’s live price chart shows that today’s gold spot price costs around $1,240 per ounce. If you bought gold in the year 2000 where prices are only at $280 per ounce, now’s a good time to sell gold.

    Overpaying for gold

    Never pay high premiums for gold. The rule of thumb is to never pay more than 5% of the price of spot gold. If your broker is asking for more than 5%, you should look for another one who doesn’t rip off his or her clients.

    Choosing “hot” gold stocks

    If you’ve decided to invest in gold stocks instead of the real thing, make sure to choose companies with a good long-term plan. Don’t invest in stocks just because they’re “currently” hot right now. The keyword is “currently.” Don’t go for it and instead look for “long-term” ones. For example, is mining company X going to produce a significant amount of gold in the next few years? Are and mine only in safe areas? How about its technology? Is it currently looking for new ways to mine gold because, according to experts, the world is reaching a peak gold status? These are only some of the things that investors should consider when looking for gold mining stocks. Remember; research everything, from a company’s historical background to its future plans for development.
    After familiarizing yourself with snares of gold investment, it will be easier for you to make sound decisions. Always keep yourself in the loop with what’s happening to the economy and study the price movements regularly in order to avoid investing mistakes.
    Technical Analysis Of Mcx Crude Oil :

    Buy Mcx Crude For A Target Of 5690.